CFB National Champ Odds via @vegasinsider
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Bama - 2/1
Clemson - 11/4
Ohio St - 9/2
UGA - 7/1
LSU - 8/1
Oklahoma - 12/1
Wisconsin - 20/1
Auburn - 40/1
BoiseSt, Michigan, Oregon, Texas - 100/1
Baylor, Florida, Iowa, ND, Penn St, Utah, Washington - 200/1
These current Vegas odds for the eventual 2019 National Champs in college football are practically begging the public to bet heavy and I'm not talking about the two favorites in Alabama and Clemson.
Yes I know Bama and Clemson both have had a stranglehold on the lipstick trophy the past 4 years basically lending it to each oher in odd/even years but I got a feeling this year is different. Clemson was the odds on favorite and preseason #1 up until they nearly lost last week to North Carolina. If UNC had converted the 2 and won the game you could have seen Clemson fall all the way to 40/1 odds with a team like Auburn. But they pulled it out thanks to their defense and despite the early season sophomore slump from Lord Trevor Lawrence they still have a Mickey Mouse ACC schedule that sets up nicely for them to at least get back to the playoffs.
Alabama on the other hand plays in the SEC and despite their shitty September schedule their defense and more importantly their rushing attack has struggled. They have basically put the whole team on the shoulders of Tua Tagovailoa and while you could argue it's not a bad thing since he will probably be the #1 draft pick in the NFL when he comes out early it's also a heavy burden because if he gets nicked up Bama could be fucked. Tua has thrown for a million yards and a million TD already with no interceptions and they have needed it to beat lessor competition. But soon they will have to face the likes of LSU and Auburn who both appear to be legit contenders in the SEC West. Both have defenses with athletes who can punish Tua and knock him out of the game. If Bama doesn't get their running game going they might not win either. And if they do win them they still gotta face a UGA team in the SEC Championship in Atlanta that will be ready to knock down Goliath.
If I were a betting man the two teams I would be leaning heavily on right now is Ohio State and Oklahoma. Right now Ohio State at 9/2 odds looks to me to be the most complete, dominate team in the nation. Granted they haven't really played anybody but they are absolutely beating the shit out of their opponents from opening kickoff till the final whistle. QB Justin Fields looks like a serious Heisman contender and he's not even close to being the best player on his team. That distinction would go to defensive end Chase Young. He's making a solid argument with Tua as the potential #1 pick next year. He leads the nations in sacks and the Buckeyes defense has playmakers on all 3 levels. Yes I know Ryan Day is a first year head coach but I don't see them slipping up anytime soon.
Oklahoma at 12/1 odds seems to be a little low. The Sooners have throttled everybody this season much like the Buckeyes. Of course they have not really played anybody worth a damn but still they have come out and stomped people's throats. Like Ohio State they got a transfer QB in Jalen Hurts who has been absolutely lights out in Lincoln Riley's offense. The problem is the Sooners still don't have a stout defense. It's better than it's been in the past but it's still a Big 12 defense. I can see rival Texas knocking them off. I could also see the Sooners getting back to the playoffs again for a 4th time and finally slaying the SEC. Remember they lost in OT to Georgia in 2017 and had a horrible 1st quarter last year vs Bama. They are in the tier 2 of the college football hierarchy behind Bama and Clemson but are knocking on the door and this could be the year they finally barge into the tier 1 room.
UGA (7/1) and LSU (8/1) play tough SEC schedules the 2nd half of the season. Both have great top 10 out of conference wins with UGA winning at home against Notre Dame and LSU going on the road to beat Texas. Right now I could see both programs seriously competing for a National Championship but both will have to go through Auburn and Alabama to be given a chance to even make the playoffs. That's some tough sledding. And yes I could see both of them beating those programs but then you gotta figure they got at least one or two losses if not more coming just because of their schedules and the SEC Championship game. I'm not so sure it's smart money to even say they can make the playoffs given there are 4 legitimate SEC title contenders this year.
Same can be said for Auburn at 40/1. They already have an impressive win vs Oregon but their schedule is absolutely brutal down the stretch. This week they gotta go to Gainesville followed by a trip to LSU and then home games vs Georgia and Alabama. Are you fucking kidding me? If they can go 2-2 which would be very commendable they still won't make the SEC Championship game. With a true freshman QB in Bo Nix I'd say their odds of winning the Natty with their schedule should be more like 200/1.
The only other teams I would be willing to throw some money on for a Natty is Texas (100/1) and Notre Dame (200/1). Both programs lost hard fought, could have gone either way games vs top 5 opponents early on. Both programs have enough talent and depth and most importantly coaching to run the table the rest of the season. Texas obviously has the tougher road being that they will have to beat Oklahoma twice just to make the playoffs. That's a tall order that they nearly accomplished last season. Notre Dame will not only have to win the rest of their games including road games in Michigan, Duke and Stanford but will need to beat USC at home and do it impressively. They can't have fluke wins if they wanna move up into the top 4. If you got cash to burn and are willing to take a big risk betting $5k on ND to win one million is your best long shot.
All the other schools listed like Florida, Baylor, Washington, Penn State, Oregon, Boise State, etc. have no shot, not even a long shot, of winning the Natty this year.
