CFB Playoff Odds - Probability (via @betonline_ag )
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) March 12, 2019
Bama
Y -250; N +195 (67.8%)
Clem
Y -250; N +195 (67.8%)
UGA
Y +110; N -140 (44.9%)
OU
Y +145; N -175 (39.1%)
OSU
Y +160; N -200 (36.6%)
Mich
Y +300; N -400 (23.8%)
ND
Y +300; N -400 (23.8%
Texas
Y +350; N -500 (21.1%)
Betonline released their top college football playoff odds probability for next season and it's hard to argue the first two in Clemson and Alabama.
Clemson and Dabo have been to the playoffs 4 years in a row and have a 5-2 playoff record with two Natty's under their belt. Bama and Saban have been to the playoffs 5 years in a row with a 6-3 playoff record and also two Natty's. If my math is correct that means Clemson has made the playoffs 80% of the time and Alabama has made it 100%. I would safely assume to bet good money on both of these juggernaut programs to make the playoffs again. With both being at 67.8% odds right now you might as well load up a mortgage or kid's college fund on it or at the very least some hooker money on it.
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UGA at 44.9% is too high. Even with Jake Fromm back they still have Kirby Smart as their coach and he's good for at least 2-3 losses per season. Yes UGA has played Bama close recently but they still lost those games. The Dawgs have made the playoffs once going 1-1. I'd say their odds are better at 20%.
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Oklahoma at 39.1% looks right. Sooners have made the playoffs 3 of the 5 years but have yet to win a playoff game even with two Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray leading the way. Their defense still sucks but they got one of the best young coaches in the game in Lincoln Riley who has made the playoffs both seasons in Norman. Throw in transfer Jalen Hurts who has never missed the playoffs and by going by the numbers alone Oklahoma looks like the best bet here with their odds.
Ohio State is interesting at 36.6% because they have a new head coach and a new QB in Justin Fields. You really don't know what you are going to get out of either at this point. What we do know is Ohio State has made the playoffs twice. My math says that's 40% and looking at their schedule I don't see any sure fire L's on it.
Michigan on the list at 23.8% has to be a joke. Michigan has never made the playoffs. They lost all of their best defenders and as we saw in their Big Ten finale last season vs rival Ohio State they still gave up 62 points with those guys. The Buckeyes simply own Michigan and Jim Harbaugh. I don't see that changing this year.
Notre Dame at 23.8% is about right. They have made the playoffs once and played for a Natty 6 years ago. The talent and depth returning for the Fighting Irish is impressive but they will need to beat two teams (UGA and Michigan) on this list on the road in order to make the playoffs. They also don't have a conference championship to win so if they lose one game they are most likely out of the playoff race. QB Ian Book is back but Brian Kelly's track record with returning starters isn't the greatest at Notre Dame.
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Texas is the hot team right now at 21.1%. After the Longhorns dismantled UGA in the Sugar Bowl and beat Oklahoma during the regular season the steers are definitely pointing up. The problem with Texas is they have to beat Oklahoma twice to make the playoffs. Good luck with that Longhorns.
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